Looking at the reaction function, we can see the difference except the real interest rate (RR), the effects of endogenous shocks to REER exactly as expected, on the other hand the shock will be eliminated entirely after 12 quarters.
In figure 2, the first row, from left to right, the increase in M2 as the real exchange rate increases even in the first period, but this trend completely destroyed in the 4th quarter, because when the money supply increases, not only the pressure increases the nominal rate but also affect the general price level of the economy, leading to inflation. Thus, according to the results calculated response functions, domestic prices will increase at a rate greater than the nominal rate and eliminate completely the reaction increases in the real exchange rate.
In Figure 3, the top row two, the openness of the economy will increase the real exchange rate increased immediately in the first period (exactly as expected), however, this effect was completely eliminated in the second period and had later 3Q, new trends come back like before.
The drawing 4th and 5th respectively describe the response of the real exchange rate shocks on net foreign assets (NFA) and the production capacity gap (PROD), entirely in accordance with economics theory as well as expected, these two factors have a negative relationship with REER, the shock completely destroyed after 12 quarters.
As mentioned above, aims to suggest the policy implications to minimize bias in the real exchange rate, the study will focus on analyzing the impact of the money supply (M2).
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