The number of VAT revenue in the current period is correlated with the number of currency in the previous stage VAT (correlation); and the disturbance (random shock) in the earlier time period affect the disturbance in the current period. To forecast the number of collecting VAT according to ARIMA models, the research team used data string comprising 44 observers of VAT from 2005 to 2015 according to the quarterly report from the budget of the Ministry of finance.
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