However, the correlation between the dollar and oil prices has been broken in the past week. The main prospects for production agreement of the Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has contributed to support oil prices. However, when the output from OPEC member countries continue to climb steep and global oil reserves are still too high compared to the average, we suspect that the freeze output is not enough to defuse the situation global oversupply. If suspicion is correct and oil prices began to decline gradually to mold 40 USD / barrel, this could lead to incalculable consequences for global assets as well as the world economy (there will be people winners and losers, but overall sentiment is still low oil prices will lead to deflation).
in such a scenario, the emerging markets, especially the markets depends on the goods, may return sour and hot capital flows are likely to switch to the active sale of the assets of emerging markets. In general, the prices of goods will be lost, which could increase pressure on emerging markets. If oil prices plunged strong enough, then bond yields may decline despite the possibility of rising inflation in the coming months.
In addition, there are still a number of important macroeconomic factors may affect the market school, but some of them seem not very important in the context of the central bank is still generous with economic stimulus policies abnormal. What attracted our attention that a recent jump momentum greenback. Yes, the relationship is still there, but we believe that the revival of the dollar will be the start of something bigger. The increase has occurred in recent times despite no significant changes in the policies of central banks. Besides, it also attests to the shortage of the dollar in the global system.
The investors and policy makers worldwide have learned the importance of the dollar in recent quarters. If the dollar continues to rise in the future, this will negatively impact both financial markets and the global economy. In a series of important factors that investors need to pay attention, the dollar is the most important factor and can signal the end of a period of peace. /.
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