u too pessimistic report such words mean, he said, the economy in 2010 remains volatile and potentially economic picture in the next year has yet to be revealed? Yeah, the reason we can not forecast of economic developments in the coming year is by far (despite the end of Q3), oriented to deploy the remaining majority of the $ 8 billion stimulus package has yet to be determined. Logically, certainly two variables are growth prospects and macroeconomic stability in 2010 and subsequent years depends largely on the decision. In addition, in the coming period, the choice priority between the long-term reform objectives or goals short-term economic recovery ahead, helping to rebalance the situation has been the subject of discussion in the research of scientists and policy makers . According to my knowledge, to date there is no formal orientation clear priority to solving two tasks are "conflict resources" is. Therefore, in order to give a close prediction with the situation it is necessary to analyze the logical realism of the 2nd stimulus package, and to clarify the optimal correlation necessary priorities between the implementation of long-term goals with short-term tasks. So , according to his view, the economy we need to 2nd stimulus package or not? As I understand it, the Government is still discussing, discussion and consultation of experts on stimulus this question. Therefore, at this time also can not give an answer right away. However, to get a correct decision needs to pay attention to several issues: Like after the impact of the financial crisis - East Asian currencies the years 1997 - 1999, trend growth and real macroeconomic balances of Vietnam after the impact of this crisis which has exposed before the crisis really impacts on the economy. that is, the predicament of the background current economy has its roots in the internal weaknesses, not necessarily derived from the negative external impacts. We also noted that external crisis caused significant negative effects for the economy and the large aperture inherent vulnerabilities such as Vietnam. However, it does not determine the status that only plays game do more serious situation exists due to weaknesses in the internal volume caused. in short, before we give a stimulus package, the economy has "bottomed out", and as a rule, it will automatically go up. Thus, the stimulus act to help the economy recover better growth momentum is growing. In fact, despite being weakened after two years (2007 - 2008) to cope with declining growth and macroeconomic instability, the economy has proved to be a strange shore up capacity before the negative impact of the global crisis, "a hundred years." However, under the impact of the crisis , the growth slowdown will not last long and not too serious, quick recovery before the stimulus package was implemented. that shows, the accuracy of forecasts and assess the crisis impact crisis on the economy of our country and the severity of the situation, launched in late 2008 and early this year is quite "heavy" and more pessimistic than the reality. so might as well say that the shoulder game of the stimulus package has been implemented is very important, but not as large as expected. no meaningful stimulus but many experts still believe that, without the first stimulus package, businesses and the economy has sunk deeper into crisis? If to speak about the effects of the first stimulus package, it will also need to analyze the structure and clarify the real impact of specific components. Considering the nature and can be classified first stimulus package into 4 components or 4 small packages, including packages 4% interest rate subsidy, subsidy consumption, investment support packages and investment package capital construction. In the fourth package on the fourth largest package virtually not been implemented due to some specific reasons. 2 and 3 packages package, much less have a positive impact, but spread is not strong. It is not a matter of which there are almost no specific package to take effect, even cause an adverse reaction (loan package for farmers buy machines and equipment for agricultural production without interest). Thus , we can say the most powerful impact of the first stimulus package focused on lending support 4% interest rate. However, in essence, this is the package to "rescue" rather than the stimulus package. This package has freed many businesses out of the state, "obstruction" circulating capital burden due to bad debt. It has to take place "activate" the economy, helping businesses and banks get rid of "dead spots", ie it has completed its mission.
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